A Closer Look: Trump vs. Harris in New York—The Numbers Behind a Shift
This poll is a wake-up call for Democrats and a sign of momentum for Trump.
As we head into the thick of the 2024 election cycle, one poll out of New York caught my attention—a state where Republicans don’t typically find much hope at the top of the ticket. The 2024 Siena poll comparison to 2020 numbers tells a compelling story.
In 2020, party identification was D+9 (39% Democrat, 30% Republican, 31% Independent).
This latest poll, however, shows a D+24 skew, with a heavily Democratic sample.
Yet, despite the favorable numbers for Democrats in the sample, Trump leads among Independents by a staggering 24-point margin, 55-31.
For context, Biden won Independents in New York by a wide 57-40 margin in 2020. This swing indicates that Trump has picked up 15% of the Independent vote—a key factor in what could become a surprising shift in a reliably blue state.
Adjusting for the 2020 Exit Polls
What happens when we adjust this new Siena poll for 2020’s exit poll data? Based on the 2020 turnout and party identification numbers, Trump comes out ahead, with a narrow margin of 46.45% to Harris’ 46.06%, a 0.39% advantage. A tight race, but for Trump to even be in this position in New York—a Democratic stronghold—indicates an underlying shift in voter sentiment that could ripple across swing states and battlegrounds.
What’s Driving the Shift? The Breakdown by Group
Diving into the demographic breakdown provides even more insight into this polling shift. Let’s start with Harris’ numbers. Since 2020, she has lost significant ground in key voter blocs:
-6% overall: Across the board, Harris is down 6% in support compared to Biden’s 2020 numbers.
-15% GOP crossover: The idea of crossover voters—Republicans who might vote Democrat—seems to be evaporating for Harris. She’s down 15% in this group compared to Biden’s crossover appeal.
-15% among Independents: Losing 15% of Independent voters is no small hit, especially when we see Trump gaining strongly in this category.
-28% among Jewish voters: Jewish voters, who traditionally lean Democratic, show a significant 28% shift away from Harris. This could reflect dissatisfaction with the administration’s stance on issues like Israel or domestic policies affecting the community.
-16% among Latinos: Another major drop, as Harris is down 16% with Latino voters, a key demographic Democrats have historically relied on.
Meanwhile, Trump’s gains in nearly every category tell the story of a candidate with renewed appeal among groups that either leaned Democrat or stayed neutral in 2020:
+13% overall: Trump is up 13% overall, which is a significant shift in a state that’s been a Democratic fortress.
+20% GOP: Trump has solidified his standing among Republicans, gaining 20% in his base.
+23% among Independents: His 23% gain in Independent voters is particularly notable, given their crucial role in determining election outcomes.
+30% among Jewish voters: A massive 30% surge in support from Jewish voters indicates a realignment that could be tied to both foreign and domestic policy positions.
+25% among Latino voters: A 25% increase in Latino support suggests that Trump’s messaging may be resonating with a demographic that Democrats have taken for granted in previous cycles.
What This Means for 2024
While New York is unlikely to flip entirely, the numbers indicate that Trump is closing the gap in surprising ways. The real story is not just New York, but the potential ripple effect in other key battleground states. If Trump can gain 13-15% overall or more with Independents in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin, the 2024 electoral map could look far different from 2020.
For Harris, the significant losses across demographics and Independents spell trouble. If Kamala Harris cannot regain footing among Latinos, Jewish voters, and Independents, it could signal a larger national trend of voter defection.
This poll is a wake-up call for Democrats and a sign of momentum for Trump. Whether or not it translates into a broader shift remains to be seen, but the foundation for a more competitive 2024 race is already being laid.
Key Takeaways:
1. Trump’s Lead with Independents: A 24-point lead among Independents could be decisive in many states beyond New York.
2. Demographic Shifts: Trump is gaining in almost every major demographic group, while Harris is bleeding support across critical blocs.
3. Bigger Implications: While New York itself may not flip, the polling trends could indicate larger, national shifts that put swing states into play.
Stay tuned—2024 is shaping up to be a much more competitive race than many expected.